The claim being checked
“St Paul’s has a higher typical annual result than Westminster.”
A-level grades at A* · 2010–2025
Marginally higher (0.7 pp); the direction depends on the years chosen.
Across 11 matched years in 2010–2025, the median of St Paul’s minus Westminster is 0.7 percentage points. That is under the 1 percentage point we treat as a clear gap. Only 21 of 45 tested periods point the same way and 24 favour Westminster; a clear direction needs at least 60%. Each available year counts equally; this is not a pooled pupil or examination-entry rate.
How verdicts are graded: a verdict needs at least 3 matched years, and with fewer only the values are shown. A typical gap under 1 percentage point, or a direction shared by fewer than 60% of the tested periods, is reported as marginal.
Share of published A-level entries awarded A* in the named examination year.
What changes the answer?
The direction changes when the period changes.
21 windows put St Paul’s higher; 24 put Westminster higher; 0 have a zero median. These windows reuse the same historical years. The counts are not probabilities or a confidence score.
A counterexample retaining the most matched years: 2010–2018 · 9 matched years changes the median from 0.7 pp to −0.1 pp.
Strongest positive window · St Paul’s minus Westminster
St Paul’s higher
6.5 pp
2010–2012 · 3 matched years
Strongest negative window · St Paul’s minus Westminster
Westminster higher
−3.9 pp
2014–2016 · 3 matched years
Extremes are shown to expose sensitivity. They must not replace the full-period finding or be presented as a balanced forecast.
Change the years. See the whole pattern.
Read a starting year across to an ending year. Select a cell to inspect its figures. Each coloured cell contains at least 3 matched observations with the same definition.
| Start / end | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | · | · | |||||||||
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| 2017 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ||
| 2018 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| 2019 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 2025 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
A span may contain gaps. Windows with identical included years are counted once. We never combine different qualification, population or outcome definitions in one window.
Inspect a period
2010–2018 · 9 matched years
St Paul’s minus Westminster: −0.1 percentage points median annual difference.
Matched years: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018. Years without a matched result inside this span: none.
Figures use the reported precision. Exact median: −1/10. A small signed gap does not establish a difference in underlying unrounded results.
| School / year | Published value | Population and denominator | Status and precision | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Paul’s School 2010 | 53.5%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary1 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2010, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:16 |
| Westminster School 2010 | 47%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 565 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2010, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:22 |
| St Paul’s School 2011 | 52.3%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary1 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2011, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:17 |
| Westminster School 2011 | 53%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 552 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2011, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:23 |
| St Paul’s School 2012 | 55.6%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary1 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2012, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:18 |
| Westminster School 2012 | 49%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 536 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2012, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:24 |
| St Paul’s School 2013 | 44.9%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary1 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2013, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:19 |
| Westminster School 2013 | 45%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 532 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2013, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:25 |
| St Paul’s School 2014 | 47.7%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary1 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2014, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:20 |
| Westminster School 2014 | 47%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 573 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2014, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:26 |
| St Paul’s School 2015 | 42.1%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary1 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2015, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:21 |
| Westminster School 2015 | 49%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 583 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2015, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:27 |
| St Paul’s School 2016 | 45.1%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary1 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2016, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:22 |
| Westminster School 2016 | 49%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 570 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2016, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:28 |
| St Paul’s School 2017 | 46.9%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary1 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2017, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:23 |
| Westminster School 2017 | 47%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 469 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2017, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:29 |
| St Paul’s School 2018 | 51%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: Unknown / not recorded | Primary / Secondary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: St Paul’s School, 2018, a_starfig:st_pauls_alevel:24 |
| Westminster School 2018 | 48%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesDenominator: 460 | Primary0 decimal places | Inspect evidence: Westminster School, 2018, a_starfig:westminster_alevel:30 |
Wording you can use and verify
Keep the definition, period and limits with the finding. Download the evidence snapshot to retain the current inputs.
St Paul’s School / Westminster School. A-level grades at A*. Share of published A-level entries awarded A* in the named examination year. Period requested: 2010–2025.
On the reported figures, the median annual difference (St Paul’s School minus Westminster School) is 0.7 percentage points across these matched years: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2025. Graded verdict: Marginally higher (0.7 pp); the direction depends on the years chosen.
The direction reverses for 2010–2018: −0.1 percentage points, using 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.
Checked every eligible window: 45 unique overlapping windows with at least 3 matched years and a constant definition (constant-definition-v1). These are descriptive checks on the same records, not independent samples or confidence probabilities. Years without a matched result: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. Differences use reported precision; underlying unrounded results may differ. This does not measure teaching quality or predict admissions.
Method: period-check-v1. Evidence version: c42ae164796a207095c0c15d5df6f1b7a1f9abc3dc65b9d38465ffda8d870ea2.
What the record leaves out
Years without a comparable pair: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. A missing or excluded year does not count as evidence for either school.
Inspect missing years, exclusions and definitions
A-level-only series. IB, Pre-U, mixed qualifications and school-defined combined definitions are excluded. CAG/TAG years 2020–21 are excluded by default; unresolved competing values are retained in the evidence record but omitted here.
Turn the finding into a better question.
Ask the schools for the missing years on exactly this qualification and population basis.
Results do not isolate a school’s teaching contribution or estimate an individual pupil’s admissions chances. Advisers: the worked review shows what a commissioned check of the original publications adds to this free result.