The claim
“St Paul’s is higher than Westminster on A-level grades at A*.”
A-level grades at A* · 2010–2025
No consistent lead
Neither school has a consistent lead on the share of A-level entries awarded A*. St Paul’s comes out slightly higher when all the available years are compared, but Westminster comes out higher over some shorter periods.
Based on 11 years with comparable figures (2010–2019, 2025).
How we worked this out
Over the 11 years we can compare (2010–2019, 2025), St Paul’s is ahead by a typical (median) gap of 0.7 points, under one point. Change the years and the lead flips: of the 45 year ranges we tested (each at least 3 shared years), Westminster comes out ahead in 24 and St Paul’s in 21. Each year has equal weight. We do not pool all the pupils or exam entries into one rate.
The typical gap, and the latest shared year (2025)
St Paul’s minus Westminster
Typical yearly gap (the median)
0.7 percentage points
Our calculation from the published figures
St Paul’s
59.3%
The school’s own figure
Westminster
57.8%
The school’s own figure
How we reach the conclusion
With fewer than 3 shared years we give the figures and no verdict. If at least 25% of the year ranges we test point the other way, it depends on the years. A typical gap under 1 point is too close to call. A gap of 1 to 3 points that at least 75% of ranges agree on holds up, narrowly; 3 points or more with at least 90% agreeing holds up, and with 75% to 90% agreeing it holds up, mostly. Anything else is mixed. On Test a claim, a typical gap that favours the other school points the other way. Where comparable figures are known only as a range and the verdict differs between the two ends, it depends on the schools’ rounding. The comparison rules in full.
Share of published A-level entries awarded A* in the named examination year.
Compare different periods
What changes the answer?
Which school leads depends on the years you pick
St Paul’s leads in 21 year ranges, Westminster in 24, none tied. Many of these periods include the same years. The counts show how the answer changes with the dates; they are not probabilities.
Drop 2019 and 2025 and the lead disappears: over 2010–2018 (9 shared years), the typical gap is −0.1 pp, effectively level.
Largest lead for St Paul’s
St Paul’s ahead
6.5 pp
2010–2012 · 3 shared years
Largest lead for Westminster
Westminster ahead
−3.9 pp
2014–2016 · 3 shared years
These periods give each school its largest lead. They show why the choice of years matters; either one, quoted alone, would leave out part of the story.
Every year range, at a glance
Read a first year across to a last year. Select a cell to see its figures. Each marked cell is a run of at least 3 shared years measured the same way.
| First / last | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | · | · | |||||||||
| 2011 | · | · | · | ||||||||
| 2012 | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| 2013 | · | · | · | · | · | ||||||
| 2014 | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||
| 2015 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ||||
| 2016 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||
| 2017 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ||
| 2018 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| 2019 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 2025 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
A range may skip years with no comparable pair. Ranges with the same years count once. No range mixes figures measured in different ways.
One year range
2010–2018 · 9 shared years
St Paul’s minus Westminster: −0.1 percentage points, the typical (median) yearly gap.
Shared years: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018. Years in this span without a comparable pair: none.
Figures at their published precision; a small gap may not reflect a difference in the unrounded results.
| School and year | Figure | What it counts | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Paul’s School 2010 | 53.5%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2010 |
| Westminster School 2010 | 47%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 565 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2010 |
| St Paul’s School 2011 | 52.3%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2011 |
| Westminster School 2011 | 53%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 552 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2011 |
| St Paul’s School 2012 | 55.6%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2012 |
| Westminster School 2012 | 49%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 536 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2012 |
| St Paul’s School 2013 | 44.9%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2013 |
| Westminster School 2013 | 45%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 532 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2013 |
| St Paul’s School 2014 | 47.7%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2014 |
| Westminster School 2014 | 47%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 573 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2014 |
| St Paul’s School 2015 | 42.1%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2015 |
| Westminster School 2015 | 49%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 583 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2015 |
| St Paul’s School 2016 | 45.1%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2016 |
| Westminster School 2016 | 49%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 570 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2016 |
| St Paul’s School 2017 | 46.9%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2017 |
| Westminster School 2017 | 47%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 469 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2017 |
| St Paul’s School 2018 | 51%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entries | Source and full figures: St Paul’s School, 2018 |
| Westminster School 2018 | 48%A-level post-2010 A*–E · Grade awards | A-level subject entriesOut of 460 | Source and full figures: Westminster School, 2018 |
Record details
Each figure’s status as recorded, the precision it was printed to, and its record code.
- St Paul’s School, 2010: Published figure · 1 decimal place ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:16 - Westminster School, 2010: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:22 - St Paul’s School, 2011: Published figure · 1 decimal place ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:17 - Westminster School, 2011: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:23 - St Paul’s School, 2012: Primary / Secondary · 1 decimal place ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:18 - Westminster School, 2012: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:24 - St Paul’s School, 2013: Primary / Secondary · 1 decimal place ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:19 - Westminster School, 2013: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:25 - St Paul’s School, 2014: Primary / Secondary · 1 decimal place ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:20 - Westminster School, 2014: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:26 - St Paul’s School, 2015: Primary / Secondary · 1 decimal place ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:21 - Westminster School, 2015: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:27 - St Paul’s School, 2016: Published figure · 1 decimal place ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:22 - Westminster School, 2016: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:28 - St Paul’s School, 2017: Published figure · 1 decimal place ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:23 - Westminster School, 2017: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:29 - St Paul’s School, 2018: Published figure · 0 decimal places ·
fig:st_pauls_alevel:24 - Westminster School, 2018: Primary · 0 decimal places ·
fig:westminster_alevel:30
Quote it like this
This wording keeps the years and the limits with the finding.
St Paul’s v Westminster, A-level grades at A* (Share of published A-level entries awarded A* in the named examination year), 2010–2025.
Depends on the years: over the 11 years with comparable figures for both (2010–2019, 2025), the typical (median) yearly gap, St Paul’s minus Westminster, is 0.7 percentage points. 21 of 45 overlapping year ranges of 3 or more years agree with that direction and 24 point the other way.
For example, over 2010–2018 (9 shared years: 2010–2018) the typical gap is −0.1 percentage points, so the lead disappears.
The ranges share years, so these counts aren’t odds or independent samples. Published figures, at their published precision; underlying unrounded results may differ. Years without a comparable pair: 2020–2024. Not a measure of teaching, and not a prediction for one child.
Method: period-check-v1, constant-definition-v1 (45 year ranges tested). Evidence version: 15e7e2e5e6e94ce6d07d3cbdfef862ad997d59895bff654d38cf8592a07ca995.
Years left out: 2020–2024
A missing year counts for neither school.
Why each year was left out, and the definitions
These figures cover A levels alone. IB, Pre-U and combined-qualification results are kept separately. Teacher-assessed results from 2020–21 are left out unless you choose to include them. Where publications disagree and the difference remains unresolved, both figures stay in the source record and neither enters this comparison.
What to ask next
Ask the schools for the missing years, measured exactly this way.
Results can’t separate a school’s teaching from its intake, or predict one pupil’s admission. The complete research sample shows what a study adds to this free check.