Why do published Oxford totals differ?

Four stages, easily run together

The story begins when somebody applies, and that first count is the plainest of the four, though even it can include former pupils trying again, since it takes in everyone who applied to Oxford through the school. An offer may follow. Often it comes with conditions, which makes it a yes with a ‘provided’ in it, and the university’s count of those accepted or admitted comes later still.

The record labels that later count ‘accepted / admitted outcomes’, a slash that spares it choosing between two words, though neither word amounts to independent proof of who enrolled. Entrants can defer, too. The school’s own list is a different animal, recording where the leavers it describes went – their final destinations, final as lists have to be, whatever the people on them do next – and published on a timetable of its own.

A shared year is not a shared cohort

Without knowing who is in each count, we can’t tell which of these ordinary reasons has pulled two totals for the same year apart. So a gap between offers and acceptances shouldn’t be read simply as pupils missing their grades, which is hard on them and may not be true, and a lower count in the school’s list doesn’t by itself prove the first announcement of offers wrong. The groups and dates each publication names are the place to start.

What the offer rate counts

Our Oxford offer rate divides offers by applications made through the same school in the same round, so it describes those, not all of a school’s leavers, still less the future chances of a child choosing a school. Offers without applications are half a fact. More offers might accompany more applications, a larger share receiving offers, or both, and subject choices and earlier attainment may have changed too, so the figures show a pattern while the school’s part in it waits on more evidence.

Beyond Oxford

The list repays reading beyond its Oxford line, since it says where else these leavers went. The institutions and courses worth following are those that interest the pupil you have in mind; some lists give exact counts while others simply name universities, and the two kinds shouldn’t be confused. An overseas destination can look like the reason somebody didn’t apply to Oxford. The list records where a leaver went, not why.

Where these figures come from

Each record gives the full definition, the documents it came from and what we checked.

1. St Paul’s School, 2025 admissions round: 29 Oxford offers of 85 applications from the school

   Applications recorded from St Paul’s in this admissions round. Offers following applications recorded from St Paul’s in this round. Acceptances recorded for this admissions round.

   Checked against the original: accepted, applications and offers.

2. St Paul’s School: Leaver destinations, 2025

   Places reported for the school’s leavers, a different group from the admissions-round count.

   Publications differ on at least one figure here. Checked against the original: abroad, Cambridge, destination-list denominator and Oxford.

• The records worked through here do not match individual applicants to individual leavers.
• A link to a document is not a promise that every figure in it has been checked. Each record says exactly what we checked.