How the figures are checked
Every figure keeps the definition its publisher used. Where a later, better source corrects an earlier value, the record uses the corrected value and keeps the change visible; where credible publications disagree, both values stay visible with the treatment applied. Read the corrections and published differences
Evidence status codes
| Code | Meaning |
|---|---|
| CONFLICT | unresolved contradiction shown explicitly |
| D | destination booklet/list |
| P | primary school/FOI/examinations source |
| R | reconstructed with assumptions |
| S | secondary press/league/aggregator |
Definitions used by the ledgers
Definition
Acceptances
Offers firmly accepted/finally accepted on the UCAS/apply-centre basis. Keep cycle-year convention explicit.
Definition
Applications
Pupils/application records submitted. Largest admissions quantity; not evidence of success.
Definition
Attribution lag
For a leaver in Y: admitted roughly Y−5, GCSE Y−2, UCAS Y−1. Credit a head only when the full relevant stewardship window is identified.
Definition
Destinations
Leaver-list/booklet placements. A list, not a rate unless a matching denominator is supplied.
Definition
Matriculations
Pupils who actually enrolled. May differ from acceptances due to deferral, conditions, and changes of plan.
Definition
Missingness
Use null/blanks; never delete an asymmetrical row or fabricate a comparator.
Definition
Offers
Conditional or unconditional offers made. A leading indicator; not final attendance.
Definition
Pandemic
CAG 2020 and TAG 2021 rows are quarantined from normal examined-year trend analysis.
Definition
Strict cycle
Applications/offers/final acceptances for one UCAS/apply-centre cycle. Quarantined from destinations/current-cycle offers.
Grade mappings
Grade mapping
GCSE
Old A*–G: A*, A*–A, A*–B. New 9–1: grade 9 has no exact old-scale equivalent; 9–8 is the nearest old-A* top-equivalent; 9–7 is A*/A-equivalent; A*–B requires grade 6.
Grade mapping
KCS internal IB headline
For the internal combined KCS headline only: IB 7→A*, 7–6→A*/A, 7–5→A*/B.
Grade mapping
PRE U
D1–D2 is A*-band; D1–D3 is the honest A*/A-equivalent; D1–M1 is the published/folded measures and is not honest A*/A.
Rules the presentation follows
- Every chart/filter must expose basis (offer, acceptance, matriculation, destination, exam entry), period, denominator, confidence, and source/version.
- Default comparisons must be metric-pure; cross-basis overlays require an explicit warning and different visual encoding.
- Show competing values rather than silently choosing when conflicts remain.
- Use corrected cells from the corrections table; never revive superseded headline figures.
- Keep v13 full-table rows available even when v14.6 elides them.
- Treat 2020 CAG and 2021 TAG as quarantined.
- Do not infer missing Cambridge splits or SPGS 2025 A*/A.
- For Winchester 2015, keep the coherent 443-entry original Pre-U table separate from the later 444-entry accounts version. For 2017/2019 D1–M1, primary raw-count variants control and later league candidates remain distinct. Keep the 2021 mixed A-level/Pre-U TAG measures out of both pure trends.
Which compilation controls
The source compilations are layered: a later companion does not overwrite a detailed annual table it merely elides.
| Order | Version | Controls | Does not control |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | v14.6 | seven-school companion synthesis, latest post-v14 corrections, Wayback KCS/Westminster destination anchors | all detailed annual tables that it elides; any later-secondary candidate that regresses against a v13.9 primary raw-count lock |
| 2 | v13 consolidated reader | complete strict spines and full annual/detail tables elided in v14.6 | — |
| 3 | v13.9 master + addendum | Winchester primary image/raw-count locks and analytical calculations | — |
| 4 | v14.0–v14.2 addenda | prospectus reconciliation, GCSE corrections, league-measures evidence | — |
| 5 | legacy attachment | nothing where a later locked correction exists; retained for lineage and audit | — |
Lineage of the compilation
Legacy clean/standardised
initial Winchester/Eton/St Paul's/KCS compilation; now superseded cell-by-cell
Reader consolidation
consolidated readers, KCS layers, audit/cross-check additions
Source-recovery deltas
archive routes and historical research leads; most deltas explicitly made no CSV change
Analytical milestone
long-arc rate analysis, decline decomposition, two-measures computation, like-for-like comparison
Attribution
headmaster stewardship ledger and lag model
Primary lock
Winchester 2018/2019 image tables, 2019 GCSE correction, pandemic quarantine, legacy league benchmarks
Correction addenda
prospectus offer/matriculation reconciliation; 2016/2019 GCSE locks; third-party D1–M1 league-measures exhibit
Seven-school companion
Westminster/KCS/SPGS/Wycombe integration, full GCSE repairs, Wayback destination locks; v14.6 is latest but not sufficient alone
Oxford and Cambridge records
| Acceptances or admissions | Oxford labels vary between Accepts and students admitted; Cambridge acceptance means unconditional firm after confirmation. Never label this as offer rate. |
|---|---|
| Applications | submitted completed applications counted by the named source population |
| Cycle mapping evidence | Oxford FOI/202505/554 explicitly says UCAS Cycle 2025 is for entry in 2025 or deferred 2026 (and likewise 2022-2024). Cambridge cycle reports explicitly use the intended start year. An archived KCS January 2013 claim exactly matches Oxford and Cambridge cycle-2013 offer rows. Do not add one to cycle_year. |
| Cycle year | university admissions cycle named for intended entry year; Cambridge reports explicitly say applications begin in September of the previous calendar year |
| Destination | school leaver's eventual university; a different unit from applications/offers/acceptances |
| Entry year | intended start year; deferred-entry applicants may start one year later |
| Offers | conditional or unconditional offers unless the source states otherwise |
| Suppression | Never midpoint. Oxford <3/blank means bounded unknown below 3; Cambridge older releases use <4 or <3; unidentified Cambridge 2025 source reportedly rounds 1–4 up to 5. |
US and overseas university records
- Aggregate rows are explicitly flagged; never sum them with institution rows.
- Offers, acceptances, firm places, destinations and presence-only claims remain separate metric types.
- Null institution counts mean presence-only, never infer count=1.
- US-only, North-American and all-overseas panels remain distinct.
- Conflicting source versions have conflict_group and canonical_for_analysis=false where unresolved.